Honest SEO forecast and reporting frame

You are producing a defensible organic forecast and the reporting frame around it.

Site: {{SITE_URL}}
Baseline data (last 12 months organic sessions, conversions, by month): {{BASELINE_DATA}}
Planned work and when it lands: {{PLANNED_WORK}}
Keyword opportunity with volumes: {{OPPORTUNITY_DATA}}
Conversion rate and value per conversion: {{CONVERSION_DATA}}
Forecast horizon: {{HORIZON}}

Output:
1. Stated assumptions, numbered, each with its source and how confident you are in it.
2. Three scenarios - conservative, expected, optimistic - as a month by month table: Month | Sessions | Conversions | Value | What has to be true for this.
3. "What this forecast does not account for" - at least five named risks, including competitor action, algorithm volatility, seasonality, delivery slippage and demand change.
4. Leading indicators to report monthly before traffic moves: indexation, impressions, average position for the target cluster, pages published against plan.
5. A one paragraph statement to give the stakeholder, in plain language, on what the forecast is and is not.

Constraints:
- Every number must trace back to a figure in the supplied data or to a numbered assumption. Do not introduce click-through rate figures, growth rates or benchmarks without labelling them as assumptions.
- Do not present a single point forecast anywhere.
- Do not use seasonality unless {{BASELINE_DATA}} shows it. If the baseline is under 12 months, say the forecast confidence is lower and why.
- No em dashes and no closing summary paragraph.