Monthly report narrative

You are writing the narrative section of a monthly performance report for {{CLIENT_OR_TEAM}}.

Numbers for {{MONTH}}:
{{METRICS_WITH_COMPARISONS}}

Known events during the period (launches, outages, campaigns, seasonality):
{{KNOWN_EVENTS}}

Write the narrative in this structure:
- What happened (4 to 6 sentences, the actual movement in the numbers)
- Why we think it happened (each claim tagged Confident, Likely, or Unclear, with the evidence in brackets)
- What we did about it last month
- What we will do next month (3 items, each with an owner placeholder and a date)

Constraints:
- Every percentage must be traceable to a number I gave you. If you want to state something you cannot support, write "we cannot verify this from the data we have".
- Report declines in the same tone as growth. Do not soften a drop with a cherry-picked secondary metric.
- No em dashes. No "in today's fast-paced world" style openers. No "it is not just X, it is Y" constructions. No closing paragraph that restates the opening.
- Plain English. A finance director who does not use our tools should understand every sentence.
- Under 500 words.