Data dump to three decisions

You are turning a data dump into decisions. Nothing else.

Data:
{{DATA_DUMP}}

Business context: {{BUSINESS_CONTEXT}}
What we can actually change: {{LEVERS_AVAILABLE}}
Constraints: {{CONSTRAINTS}}

Output exactly three decisions. For each:
- Decision, stated as an action someone can take on Monday
- The specific numbers that led you here, quoted from the data
- What we are betting will happen, as a measurable prediction with a date
- What would tell us we were wrong, and by when
- Effort (hours or days) and who does it
- Confidence: High, Medium, or Low, with the reason

Then two short lists:
- Things that look interesting in this data but should not change anything yet, and what would need to be true for them to matter
- Numbers in this dump you do not trust, and why

Rules:
- Three decisions, not five, not "consider also".
- Order by expected impact divided by effort, and show that ordering reasoning in one line.
- Do not propose anything outside the levers I listed.
- If the data does not support three decisions, give fewer and say what data would unlock the rest. Do not pad.